The 2017 series on team offense continues with the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies finished first in the National League and second in the majors in 2016 with 5.22 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Bud Black order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, slot, I used the actual values for the Rockies in 2016. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 5.07
Probable lineup: 4.82
Worst lineup: 4.47
Regressed lineup: 4.45
This is an example of a projection that needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt. David Dahl, Trevor Story, and Tony Wolters all posted good numbers at a young age as true rookies. None of them played a full season. That means the projection for each of them would carry a low level of confidence. Those three players could continue to show major league ability, or they could see the league make adjustments and suffer setbacks.
So I understand why the Rockies might want them down in the order. Note that the 16th and 17th top lineups come close to Black’s order. There is plenty of ability among the veterans to get on base and hit for power. If the three youngsters do well early, then Colorado can make adjustments. Black is not opposed to batting a pitcher eighth, but usually it’s a spot starter that allows Black to get a pinch hitter into the game sooner.
Colorado should still do well in runs whether the pitcher is batting eighth or ninth. What we really want to watch is how the team scores on the road. They only average 4.16 runs per game on the road in 2016.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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