Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.289 — Daniel Murphy batting against Aaron Nola
0.281 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jeremy Guthrie
0.278 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.278 — Mookie Betts batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.277 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jhoulys Chacin
0.275 — Jean Segura batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.274 — Nomar Mazara batting against Kendall Graveman
0.273 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.272 — Corey Seager batting against Jonathan Gray
0.271 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jeremy Guthrie
Nola is a pitcher that is somewhat gives up hits despite a high strikeout rate. He walks very few, so he is in the strike zone a lot, and hitters seem to take advantage of that. He seems like a perfect fit for Murphy. Murphy is 3 for 13 against Nola, with three extra base hits and only one strikeout.
The flu is going around the Red Sox clubhouse, so check the lineups if you want to go with one of the Boston hitters.
The NN with park factored in produces this list:
0.289, 0.725 — Daniel Murphy batting against Aaron Nola.
0.278, 0.703 — Mookie Betts batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.278, 0.702 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.272, 0.699 — Corey Seager batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.273, 0.694 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.275, 0.693 — Jean Segura batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.281, 0.691 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jeremy Guthrie.
0.277, 0.691 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.264, 0.684 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.255, 0.684 — A.J. Pollock batting against Trevor Bauer.
It’s another Daniel Murphy day. That’s three days in a row, and we’ll see if Murphy can keep the streak going.