Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.313 — Ryan Braun batting against Adam Wainwright
0.312 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kevin Gausman
0.311 — Manuel Pina batting against Adam Wainwright
0.301 — Eric Thames batting against Adam Wainwright
0.299 — Mookie Betts batting against Kevin Gausman
0.298 — Starlin Castro batting against Marcus Stroman
0.298 — Jett Bandy batting against Adam Wainwright
0.296 — Hernan Perez batting against Adam Wainwright
0.295 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robbie Ray
0.295 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Kevin Gausman

Log5 likes the Brewers against Adam Wainwright and the Red Sox against Kevin Gausman. Opponents are hitting .360 against Wainwright this season with a .400 OBP. Gausman is walking many more batters, with a .328 BA allowed and a .408 OBP allowed. It’s nice to see the official favorite player of Baseball Musings, Jett Bandy, make the list.

The NN with Park produces this top ten:

0.295, 0.742 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robbie Ray.
0.312, 0.730 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.279, 0.721 — Jose Altuve batting against Nick Martinez.
0.285, 0.721 — A.J. Pollock batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.299, 0.720 — Mookie Betts batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.313, 0.718 — Ryan Braun batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.298, 0.715 — Starlin Castro batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.287, 0.715 — Charles Blackmon batting against Jered Weaver.
0.290, 0.714 — Jean Segura batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.295, 0.713 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Kevin Gausman.

Xander Bogaerts remains in second place, while Daniel Murphy rises quite a bit and Ryan Braun drops some. Why do the Brewers batters mostly disappear in the NN run? Wainwright owns worse averages than Kevin Gausman. Wainwright one and three year weighted and regressed hit averages are .284 and .278 respectively, while Gausman comes in at .272 and .248. Fenway is an easier park in which to collect a hit, .248 H/PA versus .233 H/PA in St. Louis. It comes down to the batters, however, as the Boston hitters have a better track record than the Milwaukee hitters. Xander Bogaerts is the consensus pick.

Here is the daily list of batters with the most consecutive plate appearances without a hit:

As always, the best hitter you select will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!