Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.321 — Kevin Pillar batting against Bartolo Colon
0.309 — Ezequiel Carrera batting against Bartolo Colon
0.305 — Justin Turner batting against Matt Cain
0.300 — Mike Trout batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.296 — Darwin Barney batting against Bartolo Colon
0.291 — Hernan Perez batting against Luis Perdomo
0.287 — Josh Donaldson batting against Bartolo Colon
0.286 — Manuel Pina batting against Luis Perdomo
0.285 — Travis Shaw batting against Luis Perdomo
0.284 — Kendrys Morales batting against Bartolo Colon
0.284 — Eric Thames batting against Luis Perdomo

There is an abbreviated schedule tonight, so Bartolo Colon and Lusi Perdomo don’t have much competition. Kevin Pillar is off to the best start of his career, and that brought him to the top of the Log5 list.

The NN with Park sees the top 10 like this:

0.321, 0.724 — Kevin Pillar batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.305, 0.723 — Justin Turner batting against Matt Cain.
0.268, 0.723 — Jean Segura batting against Sean Manaea.
0.300, 0.718 — Mike Trout batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.277, 0.709 — Buster Posey batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.281, 0.708 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.283, 0.708 — Corey Seager batting against Matt Cain.
0.309, 0.706 — Ezequiel Carrera batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.258, 0.704 — A.J. Pollock batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.291, 0.701 — Hernan Perez batting against Luis Perdomo.

Jean Segura, tied with George Springer for the longest current hit streak, 13, makes this list. Kevin Pillar is the unanimous choice, however. Justin Turner is the consensus second choice, but is just 2 for 9 against Matt Cain. This is why you need to be careful looking at BVSP. It’s all small sample sizes. Note that Turner did not strike out against Cain, so he is putting the ball in play. If an extra ball had found a hole, Turner would look great against Cain. As always, your best choice will fail to get a hit 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of longest current streaks of plate appearances without a hit:

Good luck!