Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.336 — Daniel Murphy batting against Vance Worley
0.335 — Jose Altuve batting against Derek Holland
0.333 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Austin Pruitt
0.323 — Ender Inciarte batting against Zach Eflin
0.319 — Brandon Phillips batting against Zach Eflin
0.315 — Howie Kendrick batting against Vance Worley
0.314 — Matt Kemp batting against Zach Eflin
0.314 — Freddie Freeman batting against Zach Eflin
0.313 — Scooter Gennett batting against Luis Perdomo
0.313 — Jean Segura batting against Kendall Graveman

Murphy is 12 for 22 against Worley career, the highest BA (.545) Murphy owns against any pitcher he faced at least 20 times. Altuve is 8 for 28 against Holland.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.335, 0.778 — Jose Altuve batting against Derek Holland.
0.336, 0.769 — Daniel Murphy batting against Vance Worley.
0.333, 0.750 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Austin Pruitt.
0.313, 0.740 — Jean Segura batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.323, 0.738 — Ender Inciarte batting against Zach Eflin.
0.319, 0.735 — Brandon Phillips batting against Zach Eflin.
0.315, 0.730 — Howie Kendrick batting against Vance Worley.
0.296, 0.728 — Jose Ramirez batting against German Marquez.
0.313, 0.722 — Scooter Gennett batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.314, 0.722 — Freddie Freeman batting against Zach Eflin.

The NN likes Altuve a little more than Murphy. Seems like a good night to double down.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Howie Kendrick appears to have cooled off a bit.

Good luck!