Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.315 — Jose Altuve batting against Carlos Rodon
0.294 — Daniel Murphy batting against Daniel Straily
0.293 — Eddie Rosario batting against Zach Davies
0.289 — Jean Segura batting against Tyler Skaggs
0.283 — Dee Gordon batting against Tanner Roark
0.282 — Howie Kendrick batting against Daniel Straily
0.281 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Tanner Roark
0.279 — Jose Ramirez batting against Blake Snell
0.279 — Mikie Mahtook batting against Gerrit Cole
0.278 — Justin Turner batting against Anthony Banda

Log5 predicts Jose Altuve to bat 20 points higher than any other player among the batter/starting pitcher match-up today. That’s pretty much all Altuve, since Rondon doesn’t give up hits all that often.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.315, 0.769 — Jose Altuve batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.294, 0.746 — Daniel Murphy batting against Daniel Straily.
0.289, 0.724 — Jean Segura batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.283, 0.716 — Dee Gordon batting against Tanner Roark.
0.279, 0.715 — Jose Ramirez batting against Blake Snell.
0.282, 0.713 — Howie Kendrick batting against Daniel Straily.
0.281, 0.711 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Tanner Roark.
0.293, 0.710 — Eddie Rosario batting against Zach Davies.
0.278, 0.710 — Justin Turner batting against Anthony Banda.
0.269, 0.705 — Corey Seager batting against Anthony Banda.

The NN agress with Log5 today, Altuve is head and shoulders above anyone else. Segura might be the better choice for a double down today, since Murphy is nursing an injury.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Good luck!