Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.350 — Eric Hosmer batting against Bartolo Colon
0.343 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman
0.340 — Melky Cabrera batting against Bartolo Colon
0.340 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Bartolo Colon
0.338 — Whit Merrifield batting against Bartolo Colon
0.325 — Michael Moustakas batting against Bartolo Colon
0.314 — David Peralta batting against Luis Perdomo
0.310 — Salvador Perez batting against Bartolo Colon
0.306 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ben Lively
0.304 — Josh Reddick batting against Kendall Graveman

Colon pitched better with the Twins than he did with the Braves, but he still allows a good number of hits. With the Braves, his opposition slash line came in at .338/.383/.562. With the Twins, it’s down to .300/.328/.514. Note that a high BA allowed with a low OBP allowed means a high hit average, which is what matters for hit streaks.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.343, 0.777 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.350, 0.753 — Eric Hosmer batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.306, 0.747 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ben Lively.
0.340, 0.747 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.340, 0.746 — Melky Cabrera batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.338, 0.744 — Whit Merrifield batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.296, 0.736 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.314, 0.734 — David Peralta batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.288, 0.728 — Dee Gordon batting against R.A. Dickey.
0.325, 0.726 — Michael Moustakas batting against Bartolo Colon.

Altuve and Hosmer are tied for consensus first pick. Hosmer is batting .400 so far in September, Altuve .267. If you like the hot hand, take Hosmer.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Good luck!