Jon Gray takes on Zack Greinke as the Rockies and Diamondbacks battle in Arizona for the right to face the Dodgers in the NLDS. The two teams played evenly most of the season. After games of Aug. 19th, Colorado stood one game ahead of Arizona, the Rockies 68-55, Arizona 67-56. For the rest of the season, the Diamondbacks went 26-13, the Rockies 19-20. Arizona won the season series 11-8, scoring 5.3 runs per game compared to 3.6 to Colorado. That implies, however, that Arizona should have won 13 games against the Rockies, so there was some positive luck there for Colorado.
Gray pitched well against the Diamondbacks this season, limiting them to four walks in 18 innings while striking out 26. He did allow three home runs. His two starts against Arizona in Phoenix were much better than his start against them at Coors Field. The strength of the Diamondbacks lineup is their power. They led the NL in doubles and triples, and although they finished fifth in home runs, they were only four dingers off the lead. Gray held opponents to a .400 slugging percentage, although he was more effective at that at home.
Greinke bounced back from a disappointing 2016 to post a 3.20 ERA and pass 200 innings pitched. He once again gave up a home run total in the mid 20s, but he spread them out over more innings. Most importantly, his ability to strike out batters returned, as he K’d 215 in 202 1/3 innings.
Against the Rockies, Greinke made five starts in 2017, going 2-1 with a 3.41 ERA. He showed great control, walking just two batters and striking out 37 in 34 1/3 innings. He did allow six home runs, however. Note that the Rockies led the NL in batting average and were tied for the lead in OBP. The Cubs, who tied them in OBP, had a BA 18 points lower. Limiting Rockies walks doesn’t stop their offense, since they are about hitting the ball. That may be the most impressive thing about Greinke against the Rockies this season, his ability to limit their hits while putting the ball in the strike zone. Colorado hit .229/.241/.435 against him. The Rockies will need to hit the ball out against Greinke to win.
I’m looking for a close game. Arizona gets the edge given Greinke’s career and home field. Gray is the future of the Rockies, however, and a win by him help his legend grow.