The defending World Champion Cubs visit Washington to start the NL Division Series on Friday. This is the Nationals fourth trip to the NLDS is the last six seasons, and this year they hope for a win. Here is how the two offenses rank.

The offenses ended up separated by 1/100 of a run per game. They did get their slightly differently. The strength of the Cubs hitters lie in their ability to draw walks and hit home runs. The Nationals collect hits more frequently, and while they didn’t hit as many home runs as the Cubs, they led the NL in slugging percentage. They move runners with all types of hits. When the slugging percentages are this close, however, I’d rather have the home runs. A double or a triple still needs another hit to drive home the batter.

I’m somewhat surprised at the Cubs low stolen base percentage. With the high OBP and power, they seem to be wasting outs on the base paths. The Nationals run very well, especially when Trea Turner gets on.

Here is how the pitchers compare:

Again, the teams in terms of runs are very close. The Nationals are much better in terms of the walk and home run components of the three true outcomes, however. The BABIP allowed indicate both play good defense, so I wonder why the higher walks and home runs allowed by the Cubs hitters didn’t lead to a bigger difference between the teams. It may be due to the Nationals pitchers performing worse than normal with runners in scoring position, while the Cubs appear to pitch around the right batters in that situation.

I’m very much looking forward to this series. It pits great young hitters versus great veteran pitchers. I’m hoping Bryce Harper is healed so the match-up with Kris Bryant is memorable. Both these teams have fun on the field, both never say die, and they are about as closely matched as two teams can be. I give the Nationals a slight edge, a 52% chance of winning the series, but that’s mostly based on home field. It should be a great five games.