Mookie Betts won his arbitration hearing with the Red Sox. The Red Sox offered him $7.5 million for the 2018 season, Betts asked for $10.5 million. That nearly set a record for a player in his first season of arbitration.

The story points out that the $3 million difference means that Betts be able to get bigger raises going forward, and could potentially make an extra $12 million over the three-year arbitration period.

Of course, the Red Sox are getting a great deal at $10.5 million. Betts averages six WAR a year his first three full seasons. That (in a normal year), would be worth around $40 million on the free agent market. Since first-year free agents should be worth around 40% of the free agent price, he might have expected $16 million.

On the other hand, free agent values seem to be down this year, and Betts contract indicates that teams want to pay around $4.4 million per WAR, rather than the $8 million one might expect from inflation.

The next free agent class is going to be fascinating. If the owners can lower the price, more teams will bid on the likes of Bryce Harper at $5 million per WAR than $8 million per WAR. Maybe even the Nationals would sign him to a long term deal before he hits the market at that price. I’ve never seen salaries fall this much.