The 2018 series on team offense continues with the Cleveland Indians. The Indians finished sixth in the major leagues and third in the American League in 2017 with 5.05 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Terry Francona order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 5.27
Probable lineup: 5.20
Worst lineup: 5.05
Regressed lineup: 4.73
The 0.22 spread between the best and worst lineups is the smallest spread seen so far. That means no matter how Francona tinkers with the order, he is going to get a very good result.
My first thought looking at the default lineup was that I would list the bottom three Brad Zimmer, Roberto Perez, and Lonnie Chisenhall. The LAT bats Zimmer last when the three of them are at the bottom of the order. Francona can probably get some bang by batting Perez eighth. Perez shows up eighth in all top 20 lineups.
Michael Brantley shows up in the first slot in all 20 lineups as well, but I like the Indians batting him further down the order. He’s been easily injured the last couple of seasons, so fewer plate appearances gives him less time to get hurt.
It strikes me that there is not a lot of upside to the lineup (Zimmer and Yonder Alonso), but not a lot of downside, either (Edwin Encarnacion‘s age). If Brantley stays healthy, it’s going to be a very good season in Cleveland for runs.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series: