Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.280 — Jose Ramirez batting against Mike Leake
0.278 — Elvis Andrus batting against Gerrit Cole
0.277 — Yadier Molina batting against Steven Matz
0.277 — Jose Martinez batting against Steven Matz
0.275 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jason Hammel
0.272 — Adrian Beltre batting against Gerrit Cole
0.270 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Steven Matz
0.270 — Lonnie Chisenhall batting against Mike Leake
0.268 — Paul DeJong batting against Steven Matz
0.266 — Jose Abreu batting against Jason Hammel

The Log5 method often gets dominated by a poor pitcher, in this case, Steven Matz. You may not believe that a healthy Matz is a bad pitcher, which is why these rankings should be a guide.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.260, 0.706 — Jose Altuve batting against Mike Minor.
0.280, 0.700 — Jose Ramirez batting against Mike Leake.
0.278, 0.700 — Elvis Andrus batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.275, 0.699 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jason Hammel.
0.272, 0.691 — Adrian Beltre batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.263, 0.686 — Dee Gordon batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.277, 0.686 — Yadier Molina batting against Steven Matz.
0.266, 0.684 — Jose Abreu batting against Jason Hammel.
0.277, 0.681 — Jose Martinez batting against Steven Matz.
0.258, 0.680 — Jean Segura batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.270, 0.680 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Steven Matz.

Jose Altuve doesn’t make the Log5 list, but comes out on top here. The most important parameter for the NN is the three-year hit average for the batter (in this case, 2016-2018), which for Altuve is .309. Note that Altuve is 2 for 3 career against Minor with a walk.

Jose Ramirez is the consensus choice. He is 2 for 4 against Mike Leake with a home run and a walk. I don’t put a lot of stock in batter versus pitcher match-ups, as they are always small sample sizes, but there is nothing in these two to dissuade me from picking Altuve nor Ramirez.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!