Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.300 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Tillman
0.275 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Matt Harvey
0.274 — Eric Hosmer batting against Chad Bettis
0.271 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jaime Garcia
0.270 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Zach Davies
0.270 — Carlos Correa batting against Chris Tillman
0.270 — Yadier Molina batting against Zach Davies
0.269 — Elvis Andrus batting against Andrew Triggs
0.268 — Jed Lowrie batting against Bartolo Colon
0.268 — Odubel Herrera batting against Matt Harvey
Altuve is off to another fantastic start. He reached base in all four games, struck out once, already collected nine hits, and scored five runs. It also looks like the battle of the Garcias should fall to Avisail.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.300, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Tillman.
0.267, 0.697 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.271, 0.695 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.269, 0.692 — Elvis Andrus batting against Andrew Triggs.
0.274, 0.689 — Eric Hosmer batting against Chad Bettis.
0.270, 0.685 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Zach Davies.
0.260, 0.684 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.270, 0.684 — Carlos Correa batting against Chris Tillman.
0.275, 0.682 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.270, 0.682 — Yadier Molina batting against Zach Davies.
0.258, 0.682 — Ender Inciarte batting against Tanner Roark.
Altuve is head and shoulder above everyone else today in terms of probability of getting a hit. Avisail Garcia is the consensus second choice.
Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!