Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.298 — Jose Altuve batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.285 — Starlin Castro batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.284 — Adam C Eaton batting against Steven Matz.
0.282 — Howie Kendrick batting against Steven Matz.
0.279 — Didi Gregorius batting against Chris Tillman.
0.276 — Trea Turner batting against Steven Matz.
0.274 — Scooter Gennett batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.271 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.270 — Chris Owings batting against Michael Wacha.
0.270 — Elvis Andrus batting against Marcus Stroman.
Altuve kept his hit streak alive Friday night, one of the few Astros to get a hit in the game. Mitchell owns a low strikeout rate, so he tends to give up hits on balls in play that find holes.
Adam Eaton tweaked his ankle Thursday, so watch to see if he is in the lineup this afternoon.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.298, 0.734 — Jose Altuve batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.271, 0.707 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.270, 0.697 — Elvis Andrus batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.285, 0.696 — Starlin Castro batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.284, 0.695 — Adam C Eaton batting against Steven Matz.
0.282, 0.695 — Howie Kendrick batting against Steven Matz.
0.276, 0.693 — Trea Turner batting against Steven Matz.
0.261, 0.690 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.279, 0.690 — Didi Gregorius batting against Chris Tillman.
0.252, 0.688 — Dee Gordon batting against Jose Berrios.
Thanks in part to Coors Field, Charlie Blackmon moves from off the list to second. Altuve is once again the top pick, with Castro the consensus double down choice.
Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!