Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.295 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.277 — Elvis Andrus batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.276 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyson Ross.
0.273 — Avisail Garcia batting against Michael Fiers.
0.273 — Adam C Eaton batting against Matt Harvey.
0.273 — Corey Seager batting against Ty Blach.
0.272 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.272 — Zack Cozart batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.272 — Howie Kendrick batting against Matt Harvey.
0.271 — Justin Upton batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.271 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jameson Taillon.
In real life, Simmons is 5 for 17 with one walk and one strikeout against Gaveman, a .294 BA. Sometimes Log5 nails it, even at a small sample size. 🙂
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.276, 0.720 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyson Ross.
0.277, 0.702 — Elvis Andrus batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.267, 0.701 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.273, 0.697 — Avisail Garcia batting against Michael Fiers.
0.295, 0.697 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.264, 0.693 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.272, 0.688 — Howie Kendrick batting against Matt Harvey.
0.273, 0.687 — Adam C Eaton batting against Matt Harvey.
0.272, 0.687 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.267, 0.687 — Ender Inciarte batting against Kyle Freeland.
Altuve pops to the pop again. He owns an eight-game hit streak in which he’s batted .438. He went hitless in the first game of the season, 0 for 2, so overall he is batting .412. Elvis Andrus is actually the consensus double down pick.
Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!