Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.293 — Mallex Smith batting against Martin Perez.
0.284 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton.
0.278 — Matt M Duffy batting against Martin Perez.
0.278 — Wilson Ramos batting against Martin Perez.
0.277 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Steven Brault.
0.276 — Kris Bryant batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.275 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Steven Brault.
0.275 — Jesus Sucre batting against Martin Perez.
0.274 — Albert Almora batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.274 — Denard Span batting against Martin Perez.
0.274 — Jean Segura batting against Dallas Keuchel.

It’s not often you see the list full of Rays. Martin Perez was hit hard last year, and has started 2018 on a low note. He make every hitter a little better. Mallex Smith is off to a hot start.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.284, 0.724 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton.
0.275, 0.706 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Steven Brault.
0.277, 0.704 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Steven Brault.
0.274, 0.700 — Jean Segura batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.271, 0.696 — Dee Gordon batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.273, 0.691 — Avisail Garcia batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.273, 0.688 — Scooter Gennett batting against Brent Suter.
0.270, 0.686 — Corey Dickerson batting against German Marquez.
0.270, 0.686 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.266, 0.686 — Starling Marte batting against German Marquez.

This may be the biggest disconnect I’ve seen between the Log5 list and the NN list. There are no Rays on the NN list, as the NN weighs the batter results more heavily than the pitcher results, and the Rays hitters are not that good. Smith would be 13th on the list. Altuve and LeMahieu are the consensus 1-2 picks.

I will try to remember to check tomorrow to see which list produced better results.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!