Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.329 — Scooter Gennett batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.317 — Matt M Duffy batting against Mike Leake.
0.312 — Matt Kemp batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.311 — Wilson Ramos batting against Mike Leake.
0.304 — Manny Machado batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.303 — Adam Jones batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.302 — Nolan Arenado batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.298 — Jed Lowrie batting against Jason Hammel.
0.294 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.294 — Corey Dickerson batting against Dennis Santana.
0.293 — Albert Almora batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.292 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jalen Beeks.
0.291 — Gerardo Parra batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.290 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.289 — Joey Wendle batting against Mike Leake.
0.289 — Jean Segura batting against Ryne Stanek.
0.285 — Joey Votto batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.281 — Jose Altuve batting against Cole Hamels.
0.279 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Jason Hammel.
0.278 — Starlin Castro batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.277 — Starling Marte batting against Dennis Santana.
0.276 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.276 — Jose Peraza batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.275 — C.J. Cron batting against Mike Leake.
0.273 — Eddie Rosario batting against James Shields.
Gennett continues to hit well, one for three with a walk and two RBI last night in a losing cause as the Reds fell to the Rockies. Anderson’s hit average, however, is mostly a Coors effect as he allows a .231/.314/.438 slash line on the road.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.329, 0.750 — Scooter Gennett batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.281, 0.741 — Jose Altuve batting against Cole Hamels.
0.312, 0.741 — Matt Kemp batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.289, 0.738 — Jean Segura batting against Ryne Stanek.
0.317, 0.724 — Matt M Duffy batting against Mike Leake.
0.292, 0.723 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jalen Beeks.
0.311, 0.720 — Wilson Ramos batting against Mike Leake.
0.293, 0.720 — Albert Almora batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.302, 0.720 — Nolan Arenado batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.294, 0.718 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.294, 0.716 — Corey Dickerson batting against Dennis Santana.
0.303, 0.713 — Adam Jones batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.290, 0.712 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.304, 0.711 — Manny Machado batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.273, 0.709 — Eddie Rosario batting against James Shields.
0.291, 0.707 — Gerardo Parra batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.259, 0.706 — J.D. Martinez batting against Matt Boyd.
0.278, 0.704 — Starlin Castro batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.277, 0.701 — Starling Marte batting against Dennis Santana.
0.276, 0.700 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.298, 0.699 — Jed Lowrie batting against Jason Hammel.
0.285, 0.698 — Joey Votto batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.257, 0.696 — Dee Gordon batting against Ryne Stanek.
0.266, 0.695 — Jose Martinez batting against Trevor Richards.
0.252, 0.693 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Cole Hamels.
Gennett is the unanimous first choice for the second day in a row. Matt Kemp is the consensus second choice. Note that Altuve has not hit Hamels well in his career, 6 for 25 with three hit by pitches.
Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!