Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.342 — Matt M Duffy batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.321 — Wilson Ramos batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.298 — Eddie Rosario batting against Brent Suter.
0.291 — Michael Brantley batting against Jakob Junis.
0.287 — Joey Wendle batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.286 — Mallex Smith batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.284 — Adeiny Hechavarria batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.283 — Scooter Gennett batting against James Shields.
0.282 — Corey Dickerson batting against Alex Wood.
0.278 — Nick Castellanos batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.277 — Avisail Garcia batting against Luis Castillo.
0.274 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jakob Junis.
0.273 — Brandon Crawford batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.271 — Kevan Smith batting against Luis Castillo.
0.270 — Jose Abreu batting against Luis Castillo.
0.269 — Lonnie Chisenhall batting against Jakob Junis.
0.269 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jakob Junis.
0.268 — Buster Posey batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.267 — Christian Arroyo batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.267 — Jesus Sucre batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.267 — Gerardo Parra batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.266 — Austin Meadows batting against Alex Wood.
0.264 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Michael Fiers.
0.263 — Jake Bauers batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.262 — Leury Garcia batting against Luis Castillo.
0.262 — Tyler Naquin batting against Jakob Junis.
0.262 — Matt Kemp batting against Nick Kingham.
0.262 — Kevin Pillar batting against Michael Fiers.
Chen owns a low strikeout rate, helping him allow a high number of hits. Duffy’s .365 OBP is made up mostly of hits, so this is a good match-up to extend a streak.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.342, 0.751 — Matt M Duffy batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.321, 0.726 — Wilson Ramos batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.298, 0.725 — Eddie Rosario batting against Brent Suter.
0.283, 0.722 — Scooter Gennett batting against James Shields.
0.291, 0.718 — Michael Brantley batting against Jakob Junis.
0.267, 0.709 — Gerardo Parra batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.278, 0.703 — Nick Castellanos batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.277, 0.701 — Avisail Garcia batting against Luis Castillo.
0.274, 0.701 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jakob Junis.
0.268, 0.696 — Buster Posey batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.282, 0.696 — Corey Dickerson batting against Alex Wood.
0.273, 0.693 — Brandon Crawford batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.254, 0.692 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.262, 0.691 — Matt Kemp batting against Nick Kingham.
0.253, 0.690 — Daniel Murphy batting against Rick Porcello.
0.254, 0.690 — Nolan Arenado batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.269, 0.689 — Lonnie Chisenhall batting against Jakob Junis.
0.250, 0.689 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.270, 0.687 — Jose Abreu batting against Luis Castillo.
0.246, 0.686 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.251, 0.685 — Jose Martinez batting against Robbie Ray.
0.269, 0.685 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jakob Junis.
0.258, 0.684 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jonathan Loaisiga.
0.261, 0.683 — Nick Markakis batting against Jonathan Loaisiga.
0.271, 0.682 — Kevan Smith batting against Luis Castillo.
The two systems agree on the top three picks. Looks like a double down on Duffy and Ramos.
Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!