Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.338 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jason Hammel.
0.335 — Jean Segura batting against German Marquez.
0.326 — Mookie Betts batting against Jason Hammel.
0.321 — Nick Castellanos batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.312 — Albert Almora batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.309 — Corey Dickerson batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.306 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jason Hammel.
0.302 — Dee Gordon batting against German Marquez.
0.300 — John Hicks batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.299 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jason Hammel.
0.299 — Michael Brantley batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.295 — Matt Kemp batting against Felix Pena.
0.295 — Jose Iglesias batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.295 — Adrian Beltre batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.294 — Steve Pearce batting against Jason Hammel.
0.294 — Mitch Moreland batting against Jason Hammel.
0.288 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Jason Hammel.
0.287 — Brock Holt batting against Jason Hammel.
0.285 — Jose Altuve batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.284 — Benjamin Gamel batting against German Marquez.
0.284 — Gerardo Parra batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.282 — Starling Marte batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.282 — Jose Ramirez batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.281 — Elias Diaz batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.281 — Rafael Devers batting against Jason Hammel.
0.281 — Austin Meadows batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.281 — Jose Martinez batting against Dereck Rodriguez.
Hammel allowed 125 hits this season in 100 1/3 innings, and walks few batters. Couple that with the Red Sox being a good offensive team, and the top 25 gets littered with Boston batters. Martinez is 3 for 8 career against Hammel, about what the Log5 calculation above would predict.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.335, 0.760 — Jean Segura batting against German Marquez.
0.338, 0.748 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jason Hammel.
0.312, 0.742 — Albert Almora batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.285, 0.736 — Jose Altuve batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.321, 0.732 — Nick Castellanos batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.326, 0.730 — Mookie Betts batting against Jason Hammel.
0.309, 0.721 — Corey Dickerson batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.302, 0.721 — Dee Gordon batting against German Marquez.
0.299, 0.720 — Michael Brantley batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.295, 0.718 — Adrian Beltre batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.306, 0.717 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jason Hammel.
0.295, 0.715 — Matt Kemp batting against Felix Pena.
0.280, 0.715 — Scooter Gennett batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.284, 0.713 — Gerardo Parra batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.275, 0.708 — Eddie Rosario batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.268, 0.705 — Matt M Duffy batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.268, 0.705 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.282, 0.704 — Jose Ramirez batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.300, 0.703 — John Hicks batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.275, 0.703 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.278, 0.701 — Elvis Andrus batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.281, 0.700 — Jose Martinez batting against Dereck Rodriguez.
0.275, 0.699 — Nolan Arenado batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.299, 0.699 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jason Hammel.
0.275, 0.698 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.270, 0.698 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.279, 0.698 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Dereck Rodriguez.
0.269, 0.698 — Starlin Castro batting against Gio Gonzalez.
Segura is always a good choice for a hit, as he and Martinez trade the 1-2 slots. Seems like a good day to double down.
Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!