Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.337 — Albert Almora batting against Matt Harvey.
0.318 — Eddie Rosario batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.303 — Javier Baez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.303 — Jean Segura batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.302 — Trea Turner batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.298 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Ross Stripling.
0.297 — Matthew Adams batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.297 — Adam C Eaton batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.291 — Anthony Rendon batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.291 — Matt M Duffy batting against Steven Matz.
0.290 — Jose Altuve batting against James Shields.
0.288 — Matt Kemp batting against Deck Deck McGuire.
0.288 — Michael Brantley batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.287 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.287 — Daniel Murphy batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.287 — Willson Contreras batting against Matt Harvey.
0.283 — Juan Soto batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.282 — Adrian Beltre batting against Michael Fiers.
0.281 — Jason Heyward batting against Matt Harvey.
0.278 — Jose Martinez batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.277 — Nick Markakis batting against Aaron Wilkerson.
0.277 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.277 — Wilson Ramos batting against Steven Matz.
0.275 — J.D. Martinez batting against Brad Keller.
0.275 — Tommy La Stella batting against Matt Harvey.
0.275 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.275 — Dee Gordon batting against Kyle Freeland.
A number of Nationals make the list today. Chen’s strikeout rate is low, but his walk rate is high. The Nationals tend to be a team that takes walks, so I would be careful picking one of them.
It seems like every time Almora pops to the top of the list, Joe Maddon sits him. That makes me wonder what the Cubs know that Log5 doesn’t.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.337, 0.758 — Albert Almora batting against Matt Harvey.
0.303, 0.743 — Jean Segura batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.290, 0.742 — Jose Altuve batting against James Shields.
0.318, 0.735 — Eddie Rosario batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.288, 0.720 — Michael Brantley batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.291, 0.718 — Matt M Duffy batting against Steven Matz.
0.275, 0.714 — J.D. Martinez batting against Brad Keller.
0.288, 0.712 — Matt Kemp batting against Deck Deck McGuire.
0.298, 0.712 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Ross Stripling.
0.303, 0.712 — Javier Baez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.302, 0.711 — Trea Turner batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.287, 0.709 — Daniel Murphy batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.263, 0.708 — Scooter Gennett batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.287, 0.707 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.268, 0.706 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against James Shields.
0.275, 0.706 — Dee Gordon batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.273, 0.704 — Jose Ramirez batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.282, 0.703 — Adrian Beltre batting against Michael Fiers.
0.278, 0.702 — Jose Martinez batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.297, 0.700 — Adam C Eaton batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.277, 0.699 — Wilson Ramos batting against Steven Matz.
0.297, 0.697 — Matthew Adams batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.275, 0.697 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.265, 0.694 — Adam Jones batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.277, 0.693 — Nick Markakis batting against Aaron Wilkerson.
The NN is less impressed with the Nationals against Chen, but just as impressed with Almora. Jean Segura is the consensus second choice.
Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!