July 16, 2018

Weekly Look at Offense

MLB offense in 2018 is now about half a run lower than at the same point in 2017. This season produced 8.84 runs per game, while the 2017 produced 9.32 runs per game through 15 full weeks. Note, also. that the All-Star game this season is a week later, and the week of the ASB tends to produce very weak offense. I would expect the gap to be a bit wider next Monday.

The walk rate remains almost identical during the time period in the two seasons. All hits are down, home runs about 0.25 per game, other hits about 0.3 per game. Strikeouts are up about 0.5 per game, so the perception that there is less action is correct. Having said all that, nine runs per game seems to be the optimum amount of scoring for a the majors. The trick will be to change the way that level of offense gets produced.

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