Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.328 — Adrian Beltre batting against Brett Anderson.
0.326 — Mookie Betts batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.322 — J.D. Martinez batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.315 — Elvis Andrus batting against Brett Anderson.
0.313 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Eric Lauer.
0.299 — Steve Pearce batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.298 — Shin-Soo Choo batting against Brett Anderson.
0.297 — Wilmer Flores batting against Eric Lauer.
0.297 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Eric Lauer.
0.294 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.294 — Eddie Rosario batting against Luis Santos.
0.293 — Nick Markakis batting against Jose Urena.
0.292 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.291 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.290 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jose Urena.
0.289 — Matt Kemp batting against Zach Eflin.
0.286 — Albert Almora batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.286 — Amed Rosario batting against Eric Lauer.
0.285 — Ozzie Albies batting against Jose Urena.
0.284 — Ronald E Guzman batting against Brett Anderson.
0.284 — Rougned Odor batting against Brett Anderson.
0.283 — Jose Martinez batting against Luis Castillo.
0.282 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Brett Anderson.
0.281 — Scooter Gennett batting against Daniel Poncedeleon.
0.281 — Willie Calhoun batting against Brett Anderson.
Anderson allowed a .408 OBP this season, with 36 hits and eight walks. The batting average against him accounts for most of his high OBP. Beltre is a good hitter, so should perform well against Anderson.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.322, 0.738 — J.D. Martinez batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.326, 0.737 — Mookie Betts batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.328, 0.733 — Adrian Beltre batting against Brett Anderson.
0.286, 0.729 — Albert Almora batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.315, 0.722 — Elvis Andrus batting against Brett Anderson.
0.294, 0.719 — Eddie Rosario batting against Luis Santos.
0.289, 0.716 — Matt Kemp batting against Zach Eflin.
0.281, 0.712 — Scooter Gennett batting against Daniel Poncedeleon.
0.277, 0.708 — Michael Brantley batting against Trevor Williams.
0.313, 0.708 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Eric Lauer.
0.292, 0.706 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.290, 0.706 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jose Urena.
0.293, 0.705 — Nick Markakis batting against Jose Urena.
0.283, 0.702 — Jose Martinez batting against Luis Castillo.
0.270, 0.702 — Jose Ramirez batting against Trevor Williams.
0.280, 0.702 — Manny Machado batting against Zach Eflin.
0.299, 0.702 — Steve Pearce batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.285, 0.700 — Ozzie Albies batting against Jose Urena.
0.274, 0.700 — Nick Castellanos batting against Heath Fillmyer.
0.278, 0.698 — Adam Jones batting against Rick Porcello.
0.266, 0.697 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jaime Barria.
0.291, 0.696 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.294, 0.696 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.249, 0.692 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.252, 0.692 — Corey Dickerson batting against Corey Kluber.
0.297, 0.692 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Eric Lauer.
I like the Red Sox players against the Orioles more than I like the Rangers batters against Anderson. Anderson’s 2018 season is a small sample size, and the Red Sox lineup is just better. That said, there is a three-way tie for consensus best pick among Martinez, Betts, and Beltre. Martinez and Betts have great success against Gausman in their careers.
There is a tropical flow along the east coast of the US this week, so factor in possible rain as well.
Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!