Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.354 — Jean Segura batting against Brett Anderson.
0.331 — Dee Gordon batting against Brett Anderson.
0.312 — Scooter Gennett batting against Shane Bieber.
0.310 — Robinson Cano batting against Brett Anderson.
0.304 — Denard Span batting against Brett Anderson.
0.303 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.303 — Mitch Haniger batting against Brett Anderson.
0.300 — Nelson Cruz batting against Brett Anderson.
0.298 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jose Urena.
0.298 — Nick Markakis batting against Jose Urena.
0.297 — Jose Peraza batting against Shane Bieber.
0.296 — Starlin Castro batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.296 — Ryon Healy batting against Brett Anderson.
0.290 — Eddie Rosario batting against Chris Archer.
0.287 — J.D. Martinez batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.286 — Ozzie Albies batting against Jose Urena.
0.286 — Jed Lowrie batting against Mike Leake.
0.286 — Kevan Smith batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.286 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Shane Bieber.
0.286 — Jose Abreu batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.284 — Mookie Betts batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.284 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.281 — Matt Chapman batting against Mike Leake.
0.281 — Cameron Maybin batting against Brett Anderson.
0.280 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Robert Erlin.
0.280 — Charlie Culberson batting against Jose Urena.
0.280 — Christian Yelich batting against Kyle Hendricks.
The Mariners lost two in a row against Oakland after sweeping the Astros, as the Athletics pitchers kept the Mariners hitters in check. It looks like Seattle has a better chance for offense today. Robinson Cano is back from suspension and went 1 for 4 Tuesday night.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.354, 0.763 — Jean Segura batting against Brett Anderson.
0.331, 0.738 — Dee Gordon batting against Brett Anderson.
0.279, 0.728 — Daniel Murphy batting against Austin Gomber.
0.287, 0.724 — J.D. Martinez batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.312, 0.724 — Scooter Gennett batting against Shane Bieber.
0.298, 0.718 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jose Urena.
0.303, 0.717 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.284, 0.715 — Mookie Betts batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.298, 0.712 — Nick Markakis batting against Jose Urena.
0.290, 0.712 — Eddie Rosario batting against Chris Archer.
0.310, 0.712 — Robinson Cano batting against Brett Anderson.
0.296, 0.709 — Starlin Castro batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.272, 0.706 — Jose Martinez batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.297, 0.703 — Jose Peraza batting against Shane Bieber.
0.286, 0.702 — Ozzie Albies batting against Jose Urena.
0.284, 0.701 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.278, 0.701 — Adam Jones batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.265, 0.700 — Albert Almora batting against Junior Guerra.
0.286, 0.699 — Jose Abreu batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.280, 0.699 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Robert Erlin.
0.269, 0.699 — Michael Brantley batting against Robert Stephenson.
0.280, 0.699 — Christian Yelich batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.304, 0.698 — Denard Span batting against Brett Anderson.
0.269, 0.697 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.303, 0.697 — Mitch Haniger batting against Brett Anderson.
The two systems are in agreement on Jean Segura and Dee Gordon. It’s nice to see Daniel Murphy working his way back to the top of this list.
Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!