It was a good night in the NL West in building toward a three-way tie. The Dodgers beat the Rockies 4-2 while the Diamondbacks downed the Braves 5-3. The puts the Dodgers 1/2 game back of Colorado, even in the win column, and Arizona 1 1/2 games back in third place. That ups the probability of a three-way tie to 0.015, with the most likely win total 88.
Note that the Rockies are only 1/2 game behind St. Louis for the second wild card. If there were a four-way tie with these teams, it would require a two-day playoff to settle the NL West, then a two-day playoff to settle the second wild card. I suspect MLB would bend the playoff rules a bit so that the loser of the first day in the NL West would then play the Cardinals the next day to move things along, but we’ll see.
The best result today would be a Diamondbacks win, with a slightly better outcome if the Dodgers beat the Rockies.
Are you assuming all the teams are even? If so, I’m not sure a dodger win is actually best since the Rockies are so much worse than their competitors in the division/WC, and the Dbacks and especially Dodgers are so much better, even with just a few weeks to play.
jon » Yes, I am assuming the teams are even.