Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.334 — Daniel Murphy batting against Erick Fedde.
0.318 — Javier Baez batting against Erick Fedde.
0.316 — Albert Almora batting against Erick Fedde.
0.301 — Miguel Andujar batting against Erasmo Ramirez.
0.299 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jacob Nix.
0.299 — Ben Zobrist batting against Erick Fedde.
0.293 — J.D. Martinez batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.291 — Jose Altuve batting against Rick Porcello.
0.286 — Mookie Betts batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.285 — Eddie Rosario batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.283 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Erasmo Ramirez.
0.283 — Jean Segura batting against CC Sabathia.
0.281 — Anthony Rizzo batting against Erick Fedde.
0.281 — Tommy La Stella batting against Erick Fedde.
0.281 — Kris Bryant batting against Erick Fedde.
0.280 — Justin Turner batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.279 — Jose Peraza batting against Jacob Nix.
0.278 — Manny Machado batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.277 — Jose Martinez batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.277 — Adam C Eaton batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.276 — Anthony Rendon batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.273 — Whit Merrifield batting against Chase De Jong.
0.271 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.270 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jeff Brigham.
0.270 — Matt M Duffy batting against Josh Rogers.
0.270 — Michael Brantley batting against Thomas Pannone.
It looks like a good day for hitters in Washington.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.334, 0.756 — Daniel Murphy batting against Erick Fedde.
0.291, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Rick Porcello.
0.316, 0.728 — Albert Almora batting against Erick Fedde.
0.293, 0.727 — J.D. Martinez batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.318, 0.727 — Javier Baez batting against Erick Fedde.
0.299, 0.726 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jacob Nix.
0.283, 0.725 — Jean Segura batting against CC Sabathia.
0.301, 0.724 — Miguel Andujar batting against Erasmo Ramirez.
0.286, 0.713 — Mookie Betts batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.277, 0.710 — Jose Martinez batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.285, 0.708 — Eddie Rosario batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.283, 0.704 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Erasmo Ramirez.
0.273, 0.703 — Whit Merrifield batting against Chase De Jong.
0.280, 0.703 — Justin Turner batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.270, 0.702 — Michael Brantley batting against Thomas Pannone.
0.257, 0.699 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.278, 0.698 — Manny Machado batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.279, 0.698 — Jose Peraza batting against Jacob Nix.
0.267, 0.696 — Christian Yelich batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.270, 0.696 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jeff Brigham.
0.265, 0.695 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Rick Porcello.
0.299, 0.693 — Ben Zobrist batting against Erick Fedde.
0.270, 0.692 — Matt M Duffy batting against Josh Rogers.
0.277, 0.691 — Adam C Eaton batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.259, 0.691 — David Peralta batting against Touki Toussaint.
0.271, 0.691 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyler Anderson.
Murphy is the unanimous first choice, with Almora the consensus second choice.
Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!