September 16, 2018

Massive Tie Scenario

The Diamondbacks loss on Saturday makes a massive tie involving them remote. I’ll keep an eye on those possible ties in the spreadsheets, but I’m not going to report the numbers unless Arizona goes on a winning streak and closes the gap. The Wild West Tie between the Cardinals, Dodgers, and Rockies is alive and well, as the Dodgers beat the Cardinals on Saturday, and the Rockies lost. That puts the Dodgers 1/2 game in front of Colorado and one game in front of the Cardinals. The probability of a three-way tie between those teams stands at 0.025, on the edge of falling in the 95% confidence interval. The most likely number of wins for a tie remains at 89. For today, a Cardinals win would do the most to improve the probability of a tie, and the Rockies could go either way.

Tonight Dodgers-Cardinals game will be the seventh of the season between the clubs, and the winner takes the season series. If there is a one-game playoff between the two teams for the second wild card, tonight’s game determines home field advantage. The Cardinals already won the season series against Colorado.

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