Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.311 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.308 — Nick Castellanos batting against Shane Bieber.
0.300 — Jose Martinez batting against Ross Stripling.
0.294 — Justin Turner batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.293 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.292 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jose Urena.
0.287 — Jose Altuve batting against Zack Greinke.
0.287 — Jean Segura batting against Jaime Barria.
0.287 — Mike Trout batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.287 — James Adduci batting against Shane Bieber.
0.287 — David Fletcher batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.286 — Manny Machado batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.286 — Starlin Castro batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.286 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Ross Stripling.
0.284 — Matt Kemp batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.284 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luis Castillo.
0.282 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.281 — Freddie Freeman batting against Tanner Roark.
0.280 — Nick Markakis batting against Tanner Roark.
0.279 — Jose M Fernandez batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.279 — Javier Baez batting against Luis Castillo.
0.279 — John Hicks batting against Shane Bieber.
0.278 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jakob Junis.
0.278 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jose Quintana.
0.276 — Adrian Beltre batting against Jacob Nix.
0.276 — Matt M Duffy batting against Michael Fiers.
This is Simmons best year offensively, and he’s always been a hitter whose OBP was heavily depending on his batting average.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.287, 0.731 — Jose Altuve batting against Zack Greinke.
0.287, 0.723 — Jean Segura batting against Jaime Barria.
0.292, 0.721 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jose Urena.
0.311, 0.720 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.300, 0.720 — Jose Martinez batting against Ross Stripling.
0.284, 0.719 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luis Castillo.
0.308, 0.716 — Nick Castellanos batting against Shane Bieber.
0.278, 0.716 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jose Quintana.
0.294, 0.714 — Justin Turner batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.271, 0.711 — Miguel Andujar batting against Thomas Pannone.
0.260, 0.707 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.273, 0.706 — Michael Brantley batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.278, 0.703 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jakob Junis.
0.286, 0.702 — Starlin Castro batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.286, 0.702 — Manny Machado batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.286, 0.702 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Ross Stripling.
0.279, 0.701 — Javier Baez batting against Luis Castillo.
0.267, 0.700 — Whit Merrifield batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.284, 0.700 — Matt Kemp batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.281, 0.700 — Freddie Freeman batting against Tanner Roark.
0.282, 0.696 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.266, 0.695 — Christian Yelich batting against Trevor Williams.
0.263, 0.695 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Trevor Williams.
0.272, 0.695 — Albert Almora batting against Luis Castillo.
0.276, 0.695 — Matt M Duffy batting against Michael Fiers.
Altuve comes out on top here, but Simmons is the consensus first pick.
Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!