October 3, 2018

2018 NLDS Preview, Rockies Versus Brewers

The Colorado Rockies take on the Milwaukee Brewers in the second NLDS, the Brewers hosting the wild card Rockies on Thursday afternoon. The following table shows their offensive ranks.

Team Offense, (NL Ranks)
Statistic Colorado Rockies Milwaukee Brewers
Runs/Game 4.79 (2nd) 4.63 (7th)
Batting Avg. .256 (3rd) .252 (7th)
OBP .322 (7th) .323 (6th)
Slugging Pct. .435 (2nd) .424 (3rd)
Home Runs 210 (3rd) 218 (2nd)
Stolen Base % 74% (5th) 79% (1st)

 

Both teams showed excellent power during the season, especially in home runs. The Brewers were a bit more dependent on homers than the Rockies, scoring 45.6% of their runs on homers, the third highest in the majors. The Rockies scored 42.8% of their runs on homers, as they tended to pick up more hits in general.

The Rockies offense is tough to judge, as Coors greatly inflates their offense. The averaged 4.09 runs per game on the road.

The Brewers run the bases well. They not only recorded the best stolen base percentage in the NL, they stole the most bases, 124.

Team Pitching, (NL Ranks)
Statistic Colorado Rockies Milwaukee Brewers
Earned Run Avg. 4.33 (12th) 3.73 (4th)
Runs Allowed/Game 4.57 (12th) 4.04 (4th)
Strikeouts per 9 IP 8.8 (5th-T) 8.7 (8th)
Walks per 9 IP 3.3 (9th-T) 3.3 (9th-T)
Home Runs per 200 IP 25.3 (10th-T) 23.7 (6th)
BABIP .302 (12th) .282 (2nd)

 

Neither of these is a great three-true outcome team. The low ERA of the Brewers comes from a defense good at turning batted balls into outs.

Often in the past, Rockies pitchers did not see their runs allowed on the road drop with the runs scored of the batters. This season, the Rockies offense dropped 110 runs away compared to home, but the defense dropped 63 runs. With a little luck, the Rockies would up winning more games on the road than their lost despite being outscored.

In the other NLDS preview, I noted the Dodgers should have had a much better record. The Brewers turned out to be the opposite, winning five more games than expected. So while the Brewers have a better record than the Rockies, I think they are evenly matched.

I give the Brewers a slight edge due to home field advantage. It’s a toss up, however.

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