December 26, 2018

Early Returns

The Hall of Fame Tracker is alive and well. With a bit under 25% of the vote made public, Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay, Edgar Martinez, and Mike Mussina are doing very well.

What continues to impress me is how well Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds do among the early public ballots every year. The are both hovering just under the 75% level needed for enshrinement, and each picked up one vote from a returning writer. In addition, the four first-time voters all voted for these two tainted players.

The large amount of time players spend on the ballot allows for a change of thought, and a change of generation. The first time voters of these years grew up watching Bonds and Clemens perform; they did not cover them on a day-to-day basis. Their frame of reference is different, and that difference is leading to more votes. We’ll see if three more years on the ballot will bring in enough voters to send them over the top.

Edgar Martinez and Fred McGriff are picking more support in their last years on the ballot. Martinez may actually get elected, which will pave the way for David Ortiz to go in quickly. McGriff won’t make it, but he likely will go off the ballot on a high note. I suspect he will get in eventually in a special election, as Harold Baines did this season.

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