For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.309 — Jean Segura batting against Dakota Hudson.
• 0.309 — Cody Bellinger batting against Jason Vargas.
• 0.309 — Tim Anderson batting against Carlos Carrasco.
• 0.300 — Elvis Andrus batting against Jakob Junis.
• 0.293 — Austin Meadows batting against Martin Perez.
• 0.292 — Leury Garcia batting against Carlos Carrasco.
• 0.291 — James McCann batting against Carlos Carrasco.
• 0.288 — Nolan Arenado batting against Taylor Clarke.
• 0.287 — Justin Turner batting against Jason Vargas.
• 0.285 — David Fletcher batting against Yusei Kikuchi.

Segura’s three-season batting line is .302/.346/.428. Once again, a high batting average with a low OBP is a recipe for a streak extender. He also struck out “just” 179 times in that period. There are batters who blow that number away in a season.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.309, 0.731 — Jean Segura batting against Dakota Hudson.
• 0.288, 0.723 — Nolan Arenado batting against Taylor Clarke.
• 0.309, 0.720 — Cody Bellinger batting against Jason Vargas.
• 0.293, 0.718 — Austin Meadows batting against Martin Perez.
• 0.300, 0.715 — Elvis Andrus batting against Jakob Junis.
• 0.309, 0.713 — Tim Anderson batting against Carlos Carrasco.
• 0.281, 0.712 — Jose Martinez batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
• 0.273, 0.707 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Taylor Clarke.
• 0.285, 0.707 — David Fletcher batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
• 0.287, 0.706 — Justin Turner batting against Jason Vargas.

Segura tops the list on the NN as well, with Bellinger the consensus second pick. Bellinger is using a golf offense right now, hitting the ball far but not too often.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!