For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.326 — David Fletcher batting against Jon Lester.
• 0.303 — Tommy La Stella batting against Jon Lester.
• 0.295 — Jean Segura batting against Eric Lauer.
• 0.287 — Brian Goodwin batting against Jon Lester.
• 0.278 — Cesar Puello batting against Jon Lester.
• 0.276 — Eric Hosmer batting against Aaron Nola.
• 0.270 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Eric Lauer.
• 0.267 — Mike Trout batting against Jon Lester.
• 0.266 — Jared Walsh batting against Jon Lester.
• 0.265 — Scott Kingery batting against Eric Lauer.

There are only four games on Monday, as MLB appears to want the amateur draft conflict free for viewing. I personally am not that interested in watching the draft, as the players selected seldom make an immediate impact. People do like the suspense, however, and it’s a way for MLB Network to get more viewers.

When there are few games, there is less of a choice for batters, so you’ll see some name here one doesn’t usually see. David Fletcher, however, often appears in the top ten lists, as well as Jean Segura.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.326, 0.734 — David Fletcher batting against Jon Lester.
• 0.295, 0.722 — Jean Segura batting against Eric Lauer.
• 0.264, 0.713 — Michael Brantley batting against Connor Sadzeck.
• 0.303, 0.704 — Tommy La Stella batting against Jon Lester.
• 0.260, 0.688 — Cody Bellinger batting against Robbie Ray.
• 0.246, 0.686 — Javier Baez batting against Cam Bedrosian.
• 0.276, 0.684 — Eric Hosmer batting against Aaron Nola.
• 0.287, 0.680 — Brian Goodwin batting against Jon Lester.
• 0.254, 0.679 — Adam Jones batting against Walker Buehler.
• 0.270, 0.674 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Eric Lauer.

Fletcher and Segura are the consensus 1-2 picks. Lester allowed a high BA this season (.280) without many walks, so this is a good match-up for producing a hit.

A note from yesterday on why it’s good to use a lead-off man as a pick. Witt Merrifield was 0 for 4 going into the ninth inning, but due to his position at the top of the order, was going to be the third man up in the inning. The probability of getting a hit in a game goes up with the number of plate appearances, and Merrifield delivered the hit in his final PA.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!