For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.319 — Jeff McNeil batting against Max Fried.
• 0.315 — Cody Bellinger batting against Drew Pomeranz.
• 0.315 — Michael Brantley batting against Tyler Mahle.
• 0.315 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.314 — Tim Anderson batting against Jon Lester.
• 0.314 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jake Arrieta.
• 0.309 — Whit Merrifield batting against Marco Gonzales.
• 0.308 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.307 — James McCann batting against Jon Lester.
• 0.300 — Justin Turner batting against Drew Pomeranz.
• 0.296 — Howie Kendrick batting against Zach Eflin.

I went to eleven on the list to point out that the Phillies and Nationals are playing a double header today after two rain outs. Howie Kendrick gets rest to keep him healthy, so he is unlikely to start both ends of the twin bill. Also, Max Scherzer was scheduled to pitch game two, but broke his nose yesterday. Another starter was not announced, so I used a league average starter for that game. Basically, be careful choosing Nationals or Phillies today.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.314, 0.746 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jake Arrieta.
• 0.319, 0.745 — Jeff McNeil batting against Max Fried.
• 0.315, 0.743 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.296, 0.739 — Howie Kendrick batting against Zach Eflin.
• 0.315, 0.738 — Michael Brantley batting against Tyler Mahle.
• 0.309, 0.730 — Whit Merrifield batting against Marco Gonzales.
• 0.308, 0.726 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.279, 0.726 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zack Greinke.
• 0.314, 0.717 — Tim Anderson batting against Jon Lester.
• 0.315, 0.717 — Cody Bellinger batting against Drew Pomeranz.

Jeff McNeil is the consensus first pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!