For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.309 — Whit Merrifield batting against Clayton Richard.
• 0.300 — Christian Yelich batting against Tyler Mahle.
• 0.292 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Jeff Samardzija.
• 0.291 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Glenn Sparkman.
• 0.285 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jeff Samardzija.
• 0.284 — Elvis Andrus batting against Jose Suarez.
• 0.281 — Javier Baez batting against Trevor Williams.
• 0.276 — Cheslor Cuthbert batting against Clayton Richard.
• 0.275 — Hunter Dozier batting against Clayton Richard.
• 0.272 — Ryan Braun batting against Tyler Mahle.

There are only a few games today, but Whit Merrifield is often a good pick. His 2017-2019 slash line stands at .297/.348/.460, so a high OBP due to lots of hits.

Here are the neural network picks:

0.309, 0.729 — Whit Merrifield batting against Clayton Richard.
0.300, 0.724 — Christian Yelich batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.284, 0.712 — Elvis Andrus batting against Jose Suarez.
0.291, 0.711 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Glenn Sparkman.
0.268, 0.705 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Adbert Alzolay.
0.292, 0.704 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.281, 0.703 — Javier Baez batting against Trevor Williams.
0.285, 0.701 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.259, 0.700 — Melky Cabrera batting against Adbert Alzolay.
0.247, 0.689 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Mike Minor.

There is agreement at the top of the lists, but the NN probabilities are a bit low. Merrifield and Yelich are the double down choice for today.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!