For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.329 — David Fletcher batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.324 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.316 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.311 — Brian Goodwin batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.302 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
• 0.299 — Kevan Smith batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.295 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jordan Lyles.
• 0.295 — Phillip Ervin batting against Jordan Lyles.
• 0.293 — Mike Trout batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.287 — Howie Kendrick batting against Dallas Keuchel.

It looks like it’s a good day to double down on Angels. Zimmermann allowed a .328/.379/.531 slash line this season, and batters are hitting .450 against him in July.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.329, 0.733 — David Fletcher batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.324, 0.728 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.287, 0.722 — Howie Kendrick batting against Dallas Keuchel.
• 0.302, 0.720 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
• 0.316, 0.716 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.251, 0.711 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Kenta Maeda.
• 0.295, 0.706 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jordan Lyles.
• 0.277, 0.705 — Anthony Rendon batting against Dallas Keuchel.
• 0.268, 0.705 — Whit Merrifield batting against Thomas Pannone.
• 0.311, 0.703 — Brian Goodwin batting against Jordan Zimmermann.

Howie Kendrick moves up quite a bit on this list, but Fletcher and Simmons are the agreed 1-2 picks.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!