Playing the Los Angeles Dodgers represents the downside of winning the National League Wild Card game. The Washington Nationals flew across the country Wednesday to prepare to face the best team in the National League. Here is a look at the offense.
| Statistic | Washington Nationals | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Runs/Game | 5.39 (2nd) | 5.47 (1st) |
| Batting Avg. | .265 (1st-T) | .257 (5th-T) |
| OBP | .342 (1st) | .338 (2nd) |
| Slugging Pct. | .454 (3rd) | .472 (1st) |
| Home Runs | 231 (6th) | 279 (1st) |
| Stolen Base % | 80% (4th-T) | 85% (2nd) |
The Dodgers don’t worry too much about batting average as long as they get on base and hit for power. The Nationals are actually better at getting on base, and they use the hit to reach more often than the Dodgers. If the pitching staffs can limit walks, the Nats should still put more men on base. Los Angeles slugs the ball more, which moves their runners further per hit. That’s why they finished just ahead of the Nationals in runs per game.
The Nationals concentrate their offense overall in the one through six slots, while the Dodgers spread the on-base and power out one through seven. So the Nationals have a more potent middle of the order, but the Dodgers pitchers can get some rest against the bottom of the order.
Here is the pitching comparison:
| Statistic | Washington Nationals | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Avg. | 4.27 (8th) | 3.37 (1st) |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 4.47 (5th) | 3.78 (1st) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.4 (3rd-T) | 9.5 (2nd) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.2 (5th-T) | 2.4 (1st) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 28.1 (6th) | 25.6 (1st) |
| BABIP | .292 (7th-T) | .273 (1st) |
When creating the above chart, I used the Dodgers numbers from last season as a template. Offense was up quite a bit in 2019 from the previous season, but the Dodgers ERA and runs allowed per game are very similar to their 2018 numbers. With that comparison in mind, the Dodgers pitching staff improved greatly relative to the league. This is a monster staff.
The Washington Nationals front line pitching is great, but the bullpen is still a problem. I wonder the Nationals will continue to use two starters in game, as they did in the wild card game. I could see Patrick Corbin paired with Erick Fedde and Anibal Sanchez followed by Joe Ross. This could keep the pitches down so they could start every third game, and keep the bullpen out of the game until the late innings.
This should be a very good series, as I suspect the pitching numbers will be much closer than the season stats. The Dodgers strength, hitting home runs, is also the weakest part of the Nationals pitching. That may win out in the end, so I give the Dodgers a 58% chance of winning the series.