The 2020 series on team offense continues with the Washington Nationals. The Nationals finished sixth in the majors and second in the National League in 2019 with 5.39 runs scored per game.
Normally, I write these in descending order of runs scored from the previous season. This article from the Washington Post caught my eye, as Dave Martinez discusses his thoughts on building the lineup. It is somewhat different from what is on the RotoChamp site right now. Most importantly, Martinez notes that he doesn’t like Trea Turner batting third, and he is leaning toward Starlin Castro taking that slot. A hybrid lineup based on the article and the RotoChamp is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. Actual 2019 numbers for the National pitchers go into the pitcher slot. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 4.96
- Probable lineup: 4.72
- Worst lineup: 4.34
- Regressed lineup: 4.42
The LAT puts Juan Soto in the lead-off slot with Turner behind him. Note that this solves a problem that was bothering Martinez:
“Trea, one of his big assets is his speed,” Martinez said. “We want him to get on and cause havoc and get him to steal bases. I’m afraid if we let him hit third, he won’t steal as much just because he wants Juan to hit.”
Play that out in your mind: Turner gets on, with Soto up next. Turner swipes second. And Soto gets intentionally walked. That could get in Turner’s head, and Martinez doesn’t want that.
WashingtonPost.com
The LAT also produces high scoring lineups with Castro batting third. In general, the LAT puts a low production hitter in the third slot, as it sees as most efficient two offensive sequences, 9-1-2 and 4-5-6-7, each separated by the lower production hitters.
Martinez should be carefully thinking about his order. There is a large spread, 0.62 runs between his best and worst orders. The team is likely to take an offensive hit with the loss of Anthony Rendon. They need to squeeze out every run from this group. I’m glad to see that Martinez is considering batting the pitcher eighth more often.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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