538 Looks at how a shortened season and an expanded playoff format changes the probabilities of making the playoffs and winning the World Series. I found this part fascinating:

An interesting change from a normal season to a much different one was that the greatest gainers included a number of clubs that have young and promising cores (the Jays, Rays and Padres) and clubs that made significant offseason additions — like the White Sox, who signed Yasmani Grandal, and the Angels, who gave Mike Trout the best teammate he’s ever had in Anthony Rendon. We wondered in December if such signings would make baseball more competitive; an expanded playoff field would perhaps benefit those teams that tried to improve this winter and serve as a disincentive to tanking.

FiveThirtyEight.com

I would expect young core teams to do better in a short season format because other teams have less time to adjust to the weaknesses of those players. In addition, the younger players would not need to adjust to a longer season than they played in the minor leagues. I assume that is not built into the simulation, so these young core teams might do even better than indicated here.