Both Strat-o-Matic and Baseball Reference are running simulations of the yet to start 2020 season. These can be fun to follow, but a single simulation can give a skewed view of the real strength of a team. If we combine the two, we’ll get a slightly better idea of the strength of teams. Note that what we’d really need is thousands of simulations. That’s how Baseball Prospectus comes up with their playoff probabilities.

This spreadsheet combines the two simulations through games of May 5th. Some team, like the Yankees, Indians, Braves, and Dodgers are excellent in both simulations. Some teams, like the White Sox, Mariners, Cubs, and Padres are great in one and terrible in the other. The Giants and Tigers are just bad no matter the simulation.

Going by the combined winning percentage, the Yankees would be the best team in the majors at .681, with the Dodgers second at .657. No surprise there. Cleveland is dominating what should be a very good Twins team, as the Indians lead the AL Central with a .605 WPct to Minnesota’s .542. Athletics lead the Astros .592 to .583 in the the tightest 1-2 race in the AL.

The Braves have played four more games that the Nationals so Washington has games in hand to make up the difference as Atlanta leads .605 to .588. The rest of the division is under .500. St. Louis easily controls the NL Central, in what I thought would be a very tight four team race.

Detroit is the only really terrible team, with a combined winning percentage of .347. That would be good for 56 wins over the entire season. Texas and San Francisco are the only other two teams playing below .400 ball.