May 16, 2020

The Chance to Hit .400

My friend Jim Storer and I went on a .400 kick this morning, looking for batters that carried a .400 BA through at least their first 200 AB of a season. With MLB talking about playing an 82 game season, the qualify plate appearance minimum works out 254 plate appearances. An everyday player should get between 280 and 340 PA (a shorter season may mean more players get to play the full year, as late season injuries won’t be a problem). That probably puts most qualifiers between 230 and 300 AB. Someone could go 92 for 230, or even 120 for 300, and hit .400 for season.

While no one qualified for a batting title hitting .400 since Ted Williams, a number of players reached a point in the season where they accumulated at least 200 at bats with a .400 BA. I could not do an exhaustive, search due to the time it takes to run the data. Instead, we chose 24 solid candidates, usually people who had a career of high averages, or maybe one outstanding season. The list tested is on this spreadsheet, twenty four batters in all. The query search the entire careers of these batters, and on the second sheets it lists the dates, at bats, hits, and batting average of the days at which they accumulated at least 200 AB for the season with a rounded BA of at least .400. Of the 24 tested, twelve accomplished the goal.

Chipper Jones accomplished the feat in 2008, finishing a game at or above .400 fourteen days in June. An exhaustive search since then indicates this was the last time it happened. In the intervening years, strikeouts rose a great deal, and strike outs are the batting average killer. Given an eleven year history without this being accomplished, I’d say the odds of a .400 hitter qualifying for the title in a shortened season is low.

Unless someone puts his mind to it. My two favorite candidates would be Mike Trout and Christian Yelich. Both hit for high BABIP and excellent home run power. While their strikeout rates are high, they are not outrageous. Miguel Cabrera lowered his strikeout rate, enabling him to win the triple crown. If Yelich or Trout decides to go for it and really concentrate on putting the ball in play, they might take it a step further. A .400 year, even in a shortened season, would be something that would captivate fans. It might even create a Hall of Fame case for the player who accomplished it. In a short season, anything can happen.

If anyone thinks of a player who should be added to the test list, let me know in the comments and I’ll run the numbers.

Update: Good calls in the comments on Lenny Dykstra in 1990 and Paul O’Neill in 1994. I have added them to the spreadsheet. I also checked Joe Torre, but he did not qualify.

8 thoughts on “The Chance to Hit .400

  1. Louis C

    Wasn’t there was some season in the early 90s where Lenny Dykstra kept a .400 average fairly late into the season?

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  2. Timothy Crombie

    Suggest you check out Joe Dimaggio in 1939. He was hitting over .400 in early Sep. Also check out Willie Mays in 1958. He was hitting over .400 on June 10.

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  3. David Pinto Post author

    Yes, Mays was over .400 for a number of days. Added him to the spread sheet. Thanks for the input!

    I’m doing players since Williams hit .400. Many did it before 1941.

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