For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.339 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Luke Weaver.
• 0.300 — Ketel Marte batting against Antonio Senzatela.
• 0.300 — Hanser Alberto batting against Zach Eflin.
• 0.295 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luke Weaver.
• 0.291 — Starling Marte batting against Antonio Senzatela.
• 0.290 — Tim Anderson batting against Matt Boyd.
• 0.286 — Howie Kendrick batting against Walker Lockett.
• 0.284 — Donovan Solano batting against Zack Greinke.
• 0.282 — Jose Iglesias batting against Zach Eflin.
• 0.281 — Jeff McNeil batting against Anibal Sanchez.

Blackmon, with his .500 BA, blows away the competition today.

The Mets may send Walker Lockett to the mound against the Nationals. Not only is Walker a poor name for a pitcher, but it reminds me of Bridgeport’s own Walter Luckett, a basketball star of the city where I grew up.

Here are the NN picks:

• 0.339, 0.759 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Luke Weaver.
• 0.300, 0.727 — Hanser Alberto batting against Zach Eflin.
• 0.300, 0.722 — Ketel Marte batting against Antonio Senzatela.
• 0.286, 0.715 — Howie Kendrick batting against Walker Lockett.
• 0.275, 0.706 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Huascar Ynoa.
• 0.291, 0.706 — Starling Marte batting against Antonio Senzatela.
• 0.295, 0.705 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luke Weaver.
• 0.290, 0.704 — Tim Anderson batting against Matt Boyd.
• 0.284, 0.702 — Donovan Solano batting against Zack Greinke.
• 0.281, 0.697 — Jeff McNeil batting against Anibal Sanchez.

Blackmon’s probability of a hit today stands at .759. The highest single day probability seen so far was Blackmon’s .721 yesterday. Alberto and Ketel Marte are tied for consensus second choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!