Correction: See updates below, the first three paragraphs are wrong. Sorry for the mistakes.

When I wrote up the Massive Tie Scenario yesterday, I didn’t realize the Cardinals were only going to play 58 games. That means there can only be a six-way tie if the Cardinals finish 29-29. If they finish 30-28, that’s a .5172 winning percentage. If the other teams finish 31-29, so all are even in the games back column, that’s a .5167 win percentage, and the Cardinals are in without tie breakers. So the rest of the way I will look at the five-way tie, and note a six-way is possible.

For the five-way to happen, everything went right on Tuesday night. The Marlins and Reds, both with 28 wins, lost. The Brewers and the Giants both won, bring their win totals up to 27. The Phillies dropped a doubleheader to the Nationals, which leaves their win total at 27. A Phillies split would have provided a slightly better outcome, but the probability of a five-way tie now stands at 0.0138, or a little over 1%. It’s in the realm of possibility. The most likely tie out come happens with the team finishing 30-30.

The probability of a six-way tie is 0.0034. You can see the calculations on this spreadsheet.

Update: Jon Weisman in the comments notes that MLB changed their mind on make-up games. The Cardinals will play a doubleheader in Detroit on Monday the 28th if it is needed to break a tie or determine seeding. I will update the spreadsheet.

Update: Turns out in going from six to five this morning I missed a team. So never mind anything from above. The probability of a six-way tie now stands at 0.0008.