The probability of a six National League teams tying for the last four playoff slots doubled Wednesday night, now up to 0.0017. That remains very low, but the trend is in the right direction. The Reds, Giants and Cardinals are all one game over .500, with the Marlins at .500 1/2 game back, and the Phillies and Brewers one game under .500, one game back. The most likely scenario for a tie comes with each team going 30-30.

There is a large disparity in games remaining. The Reds play just three games the rest of the way. The Cardinals play seven, if needed. That includes a five-game series in Milwaukee, including a doubleheader on Friday. All the other teams play independently the rest of the way. The five-game series is key. Milwaukee needs to take three out of the five. That would end the Brewers season at 30 wins, and the Cardinals would stand at 29-29. If other teams are tied at that point the Cardinals may play a doubleheader against Detroit* on Monday, which they would need to split.

*Rather than force travel and more exposure to illness, MLB might just say everyone is tied and use the tie breakers. If the tie would come at 29 or 31 wins, the Cardinals would need to play at least one of the two games.

The best result for today would be:

• The Giants fall to the Rockies
• The Marlins defeat the Braves
• The Brewers defeat the Cardinals