The Division Series this season live up to their names as all four feature opponents from the same division. The action gets started Monday in Los Angeles as the Astros take on the Athletics, Oakland taking home field honors in games one, two, and five.
The two offenses generated about the same number of runs. Houston generated 279 runs, or 4.65 per game, while the Athletics came in at 274 runs, 4.57 per game. Houston generated about 50 more hits, but only 11 more extra-base hits. The A’s drew 38 more walks. Houston accumulated all those extra hits because they don’t strikeout a lot, their 440 K the lowest in the league by 40.
The Astros struck out 70 times in ten games against the Athletics, about what one would expect for one sixth of the season. They did not generate many hits, however, as Houston batted .205/.259/.326. Oakland did draw walks against Houston, with a .237 BA and a .331 OBP. Twenty one of the Athletics 32 extra base hits head-to-head came with the bases empty, however, so they didn’t drive in as many runs as one might expect.
One telling difference in the season series was the performance of the bullpens. Oakland hit .245/391/.373 against the Houston pen. The Astros batters hit just .188/.243/.218 against Athletics relievers.
That plays into fact that Oakland allowed many fewer runs than the Astros, 232 for the A’s, 275 for the ‘Stros. Once again walks work for Oakland on this side of the ball as well. The A’s allowed 165 BB to 217 for Houston. Oakland also hit fourteen fewer batters.
Five games in five days will put some pressure on the pitching staffs. Houston appears to have five good choices for starters in the series. Zack Greinke pitched better than his 4.03 ERA. Lance McCullers and Framber Valdez both offer good three-true outcome numbers. Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy posted low ERAs.
Oakland, on the other hand, has more pure starters, but with higher ERAs. Chris Bassitt pitched well, but the others all had a bit of a problem with the long ball. How many times can you go to the bullpen early in a five game series? Given that their most used relievers seldom go more than an inning, Bob Melvin will need to be creative do keep them fresh.
This is going to be a tough series to call. I favor the Athletics, but bullpen management is tough. It’s not like the regular season, where one can up relievers from the minors as needed. The roster is set for five straight days. The series may very well come down to how many Athletics starters can go six innings, and the Athletics batters getting long hits with men on base.
The Astros will need to attack the Oakland starters early to exploit the bullpen, and build a big enough lead for the Houston bullpen to hold late. I’m giving the Athletics a 52% chance of winning the series.