The Yankees and the Rays head to San Diego for the five-game league division series. The Rays will take the field as the home team in games one, two, and five.

Tampa Bay took the season series against New York eight games to two. In looking at the Rays splits against the Yankees a few things stand out.

The Rays struck out 99 times in the ten games, 360 plate appearances, 27.5% of plate appearances. Thanks in part to that high strikeout rate, the Yankees held the Rays to a .221 BA. The Rays did damage with those hits, however, 36 of the 69 going for extra bases, sixteen of those home runs. Nine of those sixteen home runs came with men on base.

For some reason, the bottom of the order hit really well. The number eight hitters touched New York for a .258/.361/.516 slash line, the nine hitters posted a .286/.417/.536 line. The Rays pounded the Yankees starters, especially in the first inning.

The Yankees splits against the Rays show New York also picking up 69 hits, but only 25 of those going for extra-bases. The Yankees also did most of their damage with the bases empty. They hit neither the starters nor relievers very well.

In the Yankees defense, they did not have Aaron Judge nor Giancarlo Stanton for most of those games. The Yankees were 16-12 when Judge played, 17-15 without him. With Stanton, the Yankees were 14-9 with him, 19-18 without him.

The Yankees do blow hot and cold, with a bit of a U shaped scoring distribution. They scored three runs or less 25 times, 4 to 6 runs 16 times, and seven or more runs 19 times. They can crush you or be crushed by you.

The Yankees also seem to lack starting pitching for a five-game, five day series. The big question mark would be Jordan Montgomery. Given his three true outcomes, his 5.11 ERA seems quite high, but five of his seven home runs allowed came with men on base. I would not be surprised to see Gerrit Cole start both games one and five.

I’m not sure the Rays are in better shape here. They pitch a lot of bullpen games, with one-fifth of their starts on the season going to players who were mostly relievers. If the Yankees chase starters early in any of the games, the Rays may not have enough arms for a bullpen game. Charlie Morton is their Jordan Montgomery, as he pitched better than his 4.74 ERA. The Rays, however, don’t have a Gerrit Cole, who is capable of going very deep into a game. None of the Rays starters pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title.

This could wind up another slugfest series like we saw in Cleveland. PETCO Park didn’t seem to hinder the Padres power this season, and I like the Yankees in a slugfest. I’ll go with the Yankees by a hair with a 51% chance of winning the series.