The NLCS kicks off Monday night at 8 PM EDT with the Braves “visiting” the Dodgers in Arlington Texas. The Dodgers, with the best record in the NL, serve as the home team in games one, two, six, and seven. There will be no off days, but there will be fans in the stands!
Atlanta and Los Angeles posted the two best offenses in the NL, the Dodgers outscoring the Braves by just a run. Both teams posted identical slugging percentages, but the Braves finished twelve points ahead in batting average and eleven points ahead in OBP. The power came from different sources. The Braves totaled 133 doubles plus triples to the Dodgers 103. The Dodgers hit 118 home runs to the Braves 103.
In addition, the team were at different ends of the BABIP spectrum. Atlanta posted a .322 mark, the highest in the league. Los Angeles came in at .276, the fourth lowest. (The NL average was .293.) The kicker is that the Braves struck out over 100 more times than the Dodgers, which helped even things out. You can generate offense with a low BABIP so long as you don’t strike out very much.
In almost every measure, however, the Braves offense appears to be better than the Dodgers offense. Why did the Dodgers score that extra run? I can see two reasons. If you look at the splits for the Dodgers hitters, they performed their best with men on base. The downside of that is they didn’t do a great job of starting rallies. They made the most of their opportunities, however. They especially hit for power with men on, and that helps score runners from first. The Braves did perform a bit better with men on, but the wasn’t much difference across the base situation splits.
I believe a more important difference involves the construction of the lineup. The Braves lack the depth of the Dodgers. The seven, eight, and nine hitters on the Braves all performed poorly at the plate. The Dodgers bottom three would all bat higher on most teams, and pretty much all the lineup slots produced a reasonable OBP. So on the Braves, one through six pound you, but then there is a respite. The Dodgers lineup gives no quarter.
These are simply two excellent offenses, but with different strengths and weaknesses.
The Dodgers pitching and defense posted the lowest runs allowed per nine innings in the league, 3.55. The Braves came in at 4.80. When a team owns the highest scoring offense and the lowest scored upon defense, the team is usually one of the greats. In terms of three-true outcomes, the Los Angeles allowed slightly fewer home runs, and the Braves strike out batters at a slightly higher rate. The real difference here lies in the walks where the Dodgers are very stingy at 2.4 allowed per 9 IP, while the Braves stand at 3.8 allowed per 9 IP. In total, Braves pitchers walked 75 more batters.
Stepping away from just the numbers that matter to the pitchers, the Dodgers allow many fewer hits than the Braves despite similar strikeout rates. FanGraphs rates both teams as poor on defense, but there is one number that stands out in favor of the Dodgers. That’s RngR, or range runs.
RngR (range runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.
FanGraphs.com
The Dodgers ranked first in Range Runs at 9.4, while the Braves ranked twelfth at -7.2. There were other things on defense the Dodgers did poorly, but their Range Runs number, combined with their low number of hits allowed suggests the team was very good at preventing hits.
In the post-season, the Braves pitchers have been lights out. The starters own a 1.26 ERA in 28 2/3 innings, with five walks and 33 K. Overall, the staff allowed a .169/226/.215 slash line.
They have not been tested however, as each series ended in a sweep. Having to go with four or five different starters against the Dodgers could prove difficult. The Dodgers starters and overall staff is also very good, and it just seems Los Angeles has more depth than Atlanta.
My feeling is that in a long series with no days off depth will win out. I give the Dodgers a 55% chance of winning the NLCS and advancing to the World Series.