George King believes the Yankees can take the Rays out of the AL East race by trading for Rays ace Blake Snell. That may be true in the short run, but the Rays are working more a different success timeline than the Yankees. The big market clubs need to win steadily. While it’s nice to build a long-term core, these teams want to rebuild quickly, and will use trades and free agency to keep a winning team intact. If you think in terms of a wave function, these teams want long wavelengths and shallow amplitudes.

Teams like the Rays oscillate with higher amplitude, with a large difference between the peaks and valleys. The trick for a team like the Rays is to shorten the wave length. Right now they looked like they were on a five to six year cycle. From 2008 to 2013 the Rays posted winning percentages above .500 and made the playoffs four times. They then suffered a five year drought, and now have made the playoffs two years in a row.

I can believe the Rays would be better off with a two-year wavelength. Five years is a long time for fans to wait for a winner. Better trades for prospects, like might happen in a Snell deal is one way to go. It’s tough to pull off, as unrealized potential sometimes remains unrealized. While the Rays not be good in 2021, don’t count them out longer term.