David Laurila posts his weekly notes column, starting off with A.J. Hinch coming under a bit of criticism for his stance on aggressive base running.

“Your WAR gets dinged whenever you get thrown out on the bases. It’s not valued. People are very aware… players are very aware of that. Winning baseball is good for your WAR too, even if it’s not quantifiable.”

FanGraphs.com

The real question to me is knowing the probabilities. When should one be aggressive on the bases, and when should one take caution. Stretching a single into a double is probably worth more of a risk that stretching a double into a triple. The hidden game of baseball showed many years ago that just a man on second, trying to go from second to third on a ground ball to short stop doesn’t have to work very often to to be worth the try. Yet every time an out is made on that play, there is criticism.

Third base coaches and players need to evaluate these probabilities in real time, and the best way to do that is to be prepared. What should I do if I hit the ball to a particular spot with a particular outfielder playing the ball. Knowing all the base out situations and the best thing to do at the time. Runners need to be quizzed; you’re on second with one out, and a fly ball is hit to the rightfield corner with Mookie Betts fielding. Do you go half way and hope the ball drops or do you tag up? Or even better, how far away from third base does the ball need to be caught to tag?

The point is not to be aggressive for no reason, although sometimes surprise works.. Even if you get all the probabilities right, runners will still make outs. The idea is to find the break even line, so the long-term expected value of the play is positive.