With exhibition games starting today, I thought it was a good time to review the 2020 offensive predictions. I use the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) to predict the runs per game of the preseason probable lineup. Not surprisingly, with a 60 game season, players opting out, and two teams ravaged by the pandemic, the predictions were not good. Offense fell in 2020 from in 4.83 runs per game in 2019 to 4.65 runs per game in 2020. This happened despite the NL adopting the designated hitter.

Only four teams beat their probable lineup prediction, the Braves, Giants, Padres, and Orioles. The teams came in 1.2 runs per game under the prediction, the Brewers, Reds, and Pirates. Not only were the predictions way off, but the correlation of rank came in poor as well, at 0.43, compared to 0.70 in 2019. With a full season on slate for 2021, maybe the LAT will perform better this year.