The 2021 series on team offense begins with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers finished first in the majors in 2020 with 5.82 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Dave Roberts order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitcher slot, I used the Dodgers numbers from 2017-2020. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 5.46
- Probable lineup: 5.29
- Worst lineup: 4.90
- Regressed lineup: 4.79
The big drop in offense comes from the loss of the designated hitter. It’s still an outstanding offense, as they closest the Dodgers come to a poor hitter is A.J. Pollack and his .317/.476 OPB/Slug.
I’d say the biggest difference between the LAT and the actual lineup revolves around Corey Seager and Justin Turner. The default lineup puts both hitters in the top four, while the LAT sees them surrounding the pitcher (batting 8th). I side with the Dodgers on Seager, as injuries probably bring his Marcel projection down a bit. He looked like he was returning to form in 2020, and if that’s the case, the top of the order is the right place for him.
The LAT puts Turner in the ninth slot, treating him as a secondary lead-off many. Given Mookie Betts‘s power in the lead off slot, Turner batting ninth would provide Betts with more RBI opportunities.
As long as the Dodgers don’t bat the pitchers high in the order, it will be difficult for them to come up with a bad lineup.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Previous posts in this series: