The 2021 series on team offense continues with the the Atlanta Braves. The Braves finished second in the majors and the National League in 2020 with 5.80 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Brian Snitker order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitcher slot, I used the Braves numbers from 2017-2020. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 5.01
- Probable lineup: 4.77
- Worst lineup: 4.35
- Regressed lineup: 4.45
I very much like Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Freddie Freeman at the top of the order, although the LAT likes the slots reversed, with Freeman leading off. With the lack of a designated hitter this season, Snitker is considering moving Freeman to the third slot:
Snitker’s feeling is that with the pitcher batting at the bottom of the lineup, Freeman would get more RBI opportunities while batting third. That said, the skipper added that he has not completely nixed the idea of once again beginning his lineup with Ronald Acuña Jr., Freeman and Marcell Ozuna filling the first three spots.
MLB.com
Batting the pitcher eighth and Cristian Pache ninth fixes that that problem. Freeman gets more plate appearances during the season, and about the same number of RBI opportunities.
Travis d’Arnaud slotted fourth seemed odd to me, but the number 28 best lineup has him in that slot, and a number of the top lineups place him third.
The lack of a designated hitter appears to have hurt the Braves much more than the Dodgers, so Atlanta may have a tough time keeping up with the league’s best offense in 2021.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Previous posts in this series: